China’s Falling Hog Prices Now 11 Percent below U.S. Average

China’s Falling Hog Prices

According to Boyar price data, China’s hog prices have now fallen 11 percent below the U.S. price. To put this dramatic price inversion in perspective, last year China’s average hog price was 67 percent higher than the average price in the United States.

Meanwhile China’s producers are still paying nearly $9.80 per bushel for corn, which suggests that China could experience sow liquidation in the near future. The latest Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) data (from the week of March 19) showed China’s hog prices at $0.88/lb (-13.6 percent from last year) and corn at $9.76 per bushel (-4 percent). China’s Hog:Corn ratio of 5.05 is the smallest since hog prices bottomed in July 2010.

Combined pork/pork variety meat imports for China and Hong Kong in February totaled 105,269 mt (this total excludes Hong Kong’s imports from China and Hong Kong’s re-exports). This was the smallest volume in 12 months, but still up 21 percent year-over-year. For China only, February imports totaled 78,539 mt – up 14 percent from a year ago. Imports from the United States, however, were down 15 percent at 19,907 mt.